Africa's Largest Hydro-Electric Dam Portends Conflict Between Two Key US Allies

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD Dam), built on the Nile, was unveiled by Ethiopia this month after 14 years of work. It is Africa's largest hydroelectricity generation dam. According to We Build, the Italian contractor that built it, GERD is expected to generate a massive 15,700 GWh per year.

The Blue Nile (a portion of Africa’s biggest river before it merges with the White Nile downstream in Sudan on its way to Egypt and the Mediterranean) has its source in Ethiopia, the site of the dam. The GERD’s creation has raised concerns in Egypt, thus portending conflict between the two most prominent US military allies on the continent.

“The GERD Dam poses a grave risk to our water security. Egypt will resolutely defend its interests,” Tamim Khallaf, spokesperson for Egypt’s foreign affairs minister, told The Energy Pioneer.

Population and Electricity

Ethiopia and Egypt, whose populations combined total 240 million, are Africa’s most populous nations. Both have fast-growing populations and the continent’s highest electricity demand for industrial manufacturing, air logistics hubs, tourism, drone and apparel factories, and cooling millions of homes in the face of extreme heat. Ethiopia’s forecast electricity demand is expected to jump from 65 PJ (18 TWh) in 2023 to 202 PJ (56 TWh) by 2035, according to a note prepared by Energi Analyse consultancy in Denmark. Egypt's electricity consumption has increased by 4% since 2020, reaching 189 TWh in 2024.

Ethiopia not only wants to use the GERD Dam to power its domestic industries, including aviation and apparel, but also to export the excess electricity to neighboring countries. For instance, Kenya, the leading economy in East Africa, is preparing a plan to purchase an additional 400MW of electricity from Ethiopia under a 25-year lease.

“Both Ethiopia and Egypt depend on the Nile for electricity and food security, are staunch US allies, are armed to the teeth, and will likely go to war over this Nile’s dam,” says analyst Tapiwa Nhachi.

Ethiopia is determined, insisting that the GERD Dam is its ‘historic right’, and indispensable to its electricity and national security.

“Egypt should desist from trying to enforce colonial treaties that wrongly dispossessed Ethiopia of its rights to the Nile,” Aziza Geleta, Director General of Protocol Affairs at the Ethiopian foreign affairs ministry, tells The Energy Pioneer.

Countries that previously relied heavily on hydroelectric projects may need to adopt solar and wind technologies to mitigate the effects of climate change on water levels.

America’s ‘Friends’

Egypt is Africa’s largest recipient of US military hardware and financial aid, with $1.25 billion in 2025, according to figures from the US Department of State. Ethiopia is the US’s primary partner in its counterterrorism operations in the Horn of Africa and does not hesitate to dispatch troops.

As the $5bn GERD electricity dam’s construction picked up speed, both Egypt and Ethiopia accused each other of destabilizing the other. Egypt was accused of providing ‘anti-peace elements’, a loose reference to various rebel groups at war with Ethiopia’s regime.

Widespread Problem?

The GERD Dam’s fiasco shows that population growth and industrialization in Africa are creating a demand for new hydroelectricity dams whose construction destabilizes geopolitical boundaries, explains Nhachi.

“The threat is growing down (in) South Africa too, where Lesotho, a tiny kingdom surrounded by South Africa, accuses ‘Big Brother’ South Africa of monopolizing its fresh water,” he says.

Under a 1986 treaty, Lesotho agreed with colonial South Africa, whereby the latter would draw drinking water from Africa’s second-highest curved dam to Gauteng, South Africa’s wealthiest but water-deficient province. The same dam also generates hydroelectricity for domestic use in Lesotho. However, today, farmers, communities, and politicians in Lesotho are angry about the ecological damage and water shortages resulting from a treaty that diverts their fresh water to South Africa.

“From Egypt vs Ethiopia, to Lesotho vs South Africa, Africa’s hydroelectricity dams are the next flashpoints for war as climate change heads buts with population growth and electricity demand,” warns Floyd Shivambu, an economist and former lawmaker in South Africa’s parliament.

Climate Change Impact

An underconsidered aspect of why electricity dams have become geopolitical flashpoints is climate change, says Shivambu. For instance, Zambia and Zimbabwe share and draw hydroelectricity from the Kariba Dam. Yet, in 2024, the hottest temperatures in the last 100 years caused the Kariba Dam to dry out to a historic low, with only 13% of its normal water levels remaining. Rolling power blackouts brought factories to a halt in both Zambia and Zimbabwe. Tensions simmered as both countries accused each other of exceeding the allowed annual water thresholds they are permitted to pump from the Kariba Dam.

“Boiling tempers in Egypt and Ethiopia mask an inconvenient truth: drying countries are also those with quick population growth and electricity hunger. Governments are left with no choice but to build electricity dams that are ecologically destructive to neighboring countries,” Shivambu says.

Better Way?

Environmental expert Shamiso Mupara sees a better way forward. Africa has one of the world’s best sunny weather conditions and ‘massive solar irradiation potential’, she says.

If populations grow exponentially: “Go aggressive on solar fields, biogass or wind. Only supplement that with smaller, ecologically sustainable hydro-dams,” she says.